Blackjack Ledger

Probability

Your exact chance of winning with the cards currently left in the shoe.

Line

The break-even win rate. Below this number, the posted payout does not cover the losing bets.

EV

The long-run average profit or loss per $1 wagered. For example, −10.50% EV means an average loss of about 10.5¢ per $1 over many bets.

Worked example: Pairs at 7.458% is below its 8.333% line, producing −10.50% EV. Rummy at 9.564% is below its 10.000% line, producing −4.36% EV. Both correctly show Pass.

EV describes a long-run average—not what will happen on the next hand.

777 Progressive Jackpot: this card tracks only the exact Grand-hit chance of the next three cards being 7♦. It does not show EV because the jackpot amount changes.

Perfect Pairs: Mixed, Same Colors, and Perfect Pair are mutually exclusive. Its combined EV weights each exact probability by its 6:1, 12:1, or 25:1 payout, so it does not use one break-even line.

Hard hand

No ace, or an ace forced to count as 1. 10 + 7 is a hard 17 — draw a 9 and you are at 26. Bust.

Soft hand

Holds an ace still worth 11. A + 6 is a soft 17 — draw a 9 and the ace quietly drops to 1, leaving 16. One card cannot bust you.

“11 vs A”

Your total on the left, the dealer's one face-up card on the right. So hard 11 vs A means you hold something like 7 + 4 while the dealer shows an ace.

The confusing one: “dealer hits soft 17” is a rule about the dealer's hand, not yours. If the dealer's cards make a soft 17 — an ace and a six — the house rule says whether they must draw again or stand. Same phrase as your soft hands, different person holding the cards.

Why it changes your play: a dealer who draws to soft 17 is harder to beat, worth roughly 0.22% to the house. Six decisions shift because of it. Hard 11 against an ace is the clearest: when the dealer stands on soft 17 you simply hit, but when they draw you need a bigger hand to win, so doubling becomes the better bet.

This app's Strategy table lets you set the rule and recomputes every cell, so you are never reading a chart for someone else's game.

Running count

One number for the whole shoe. Every 2 through 6 adds +1, every 7 through 9 adds nothing, and every 10, J, Q, K or Ace subtracts 1. A fresh shoe starts at zero.

Decks remaining

The cards nobody has seen yet, divided by 52. This app knows it exactly, because it tracks the shoe card by card rather than estimating.

True count

Running count divided by decks remaining. This is the number that actually means something.

Why divide? A running count of +8 is not one situation. With six decks still to come it is a true count of +1.3 — barely anything, because those extra high cards are spread thin. With two decks left the same +8 is a true count of +4, a genuinely rich shoe. Identical running count, completely different game.

What a high count means: more tens and aces left over. That means more blackjacks — which pay 3:2 — more dealer busts, and better doubles. A negative count means the opposite, and the house edge quietly grows.

The true count is what bet sizing is built on, and what the handful of strategy deviations key off. It says how favourable the remaining cards are on average — it does not predict the next card, and it never makes a losing session impossible.